Well, first off, let me say I love systems science, and I completely agree. If the world were run by systems scientists, it'd be amazing.

"So we come to Pascal's Wager: It's better to believe, because being wrong is potentially unsurvivable"

I also 100% agree with this. Functionally, my skepticism might as well not exist. I defer to the scientists, and believe that if you see a train heading your way, you do what you can to get out of the way or slow it down.

My skepticism itself is based in two things: Human beings love to catastrophize, and the trap of linear projections is a siren's song for even some of our smartest people. When dealing with complex systems there are two many inputs for a human mind or model to account for. This opens the door to unforeseeable interruptions to the current progression or even a reversal.

I believe that happens quite frequently, and I wouldn't be surprised if it happened here. As a rule of thumb, if I see mass certainty in a projection about a complex system, I wait for the rug pull.