Okay, see, now you said it perfectly. This was really what I had in mind when I pointed to that issue with linear thinking.

There are too many inputs in such a complex system to make hard predictions. That's not to say that we ignore the warning signs, but when dealing with such a massive amount of factors, we need to remain open to the possibility that there many things not being accounted for.

I tried touching on the same subject in this article (https://medium.com/original-philosophy/how-empirical-science-fails-when-it-comes-to-complex-systems-9affdca29394), but you did a great job bringing it home. 10/10 comment